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Goldman Sachs (GS), which has lowered its GDP forecast and raised its odds of a U.S. economic recession, also lowered its odds for a U.S. market downturn. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said that tariffs would “slow growth” in the annual letter he sent to shareholders. Here’s what you need to know as an investor today.
1. US Stock Futures Losses Continue as Tariffs Selloff Continues
U.S. stock prices are falling as the selloff continues due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs and China’s response. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures have fallen by 800 points, or 2%, following the blue-chip’s loss of nearly 10% during the final two trading sessions last week. Nasdaq futures are down almost 3% and S&P 500 futures are lower by about 2.5%. The yields of the 10-year Treasury bill are now lower at 3.98%. Oil futures have fallen 2.5%, trading at just over $60 a barrel. Gold futures are up.
2. Global Stocks Fall as Europe and Asia React to Tariffs
Global stocks continue to fall as the selloff continues in response to U.S. trade tariffs. The Stoxx Europe 600 is down almost 5%, while Japan’s Nikkei fell almost 8% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng – where the largest Chinese companies are listed – plunged 13%. Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX Index of implied stock market volatilty, has surged to its highest levels ever since the early stages of the pandemic.
3. Bitcoin sell-off continues amid market turmoil
Bitcoin (BTCUSD), a pioneering cryptocurrency, has fallen to its lowest level since last November as traders dump the cryptocurrency amid wider market turmoil. Bitcoin is trading around $76,500 and has fallen about 18% in the past year. The downturn took cryptocurrency-related stocks with it. Bitcoin buyer strategy (MSTR), a stock, is down 9% during premarket trading. Shares of bitcoin mining company Mara Holdings are down more than 10%, while shares of Riot Platforms, another miner, are down nearly 8%. Stocks of cryptocurrency brokerage Coinbase are down nearly 7%.
4. Goldman Sachs Raises Recession Odds, Lowers GDP Outlook
Goldman Sachs (GS) lowered its outlook for U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and raised its recession odds in a note Sunday night, as analysts continue to evaluate the Trump administration’s tariffs. Goldman now expects the fourth quarter of 2025 U.S. GDP to grow at 0.5% over the previous forecast of 1%. Goldman also lowered its full-year GDP projection to 1.3% from 1.5%, and raised its odds of a recession over the next 12 months to 45% from 35%.
5. JPMorgan's Dimon Says Tariffs 'Will Slow Down Growth'
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that tariffs stand to raise prices on both imported and domestic goods, potentially derailing an already slowing U.S. economy. Dimon wrote in his annual letter to shareholders, released on Monday, that while tariffs could have long-term advantages, the higher import tax will likely cause disruptions short-term. Dimon wrote that while it is unclear whether or not the tariff menu will cause a recession, it will certainly slow down growth.
