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Key Takeaways
- President Donald Trump's second term in office has been marked by uncertainty, although the economy has rolled with the punches so far.
- Trump is among five post-war presidents whose economy shrank in the first 100 days.
- Many consumers and economists are worried about the future. They believe that his controversial tariffs could lead to higher prices.
Just 100 days into President Donald Trump's second presidency, his sweeping efforts to remake the U.S. economy are starting to show results.
Trump’s first day in office was marked by a barrage if executive orders. Many of them had immediate and dramatic impacts on the US economy. According to a Deutsche Bank analysis, Trump signed more executive orders than Franklin Roosevelt in 1933 (99). Trump had only issued 33 executive orders in his first term. Biden had issued 42.
Most of these orders were trade-related: Trump imposed heavy duties on U.S. trading partner countries, including a 145% duty on most products coming from China. These orders are a complete reversal of post-WWII free trade policies adopted by U.S. presidents. Trump has stated that he wants to use tariffs to create jobs in the U.S. manufacturing industry and to raise revenue for the government. The economy is only now starting to feel the effects from these orders, which were mostly implemented in April.
Tariffs are the main reason economists say the nation’s economy shrank in the first quarter 2025, after nearly three years solid growth. Businesses and individuals hoped to beat tariffs bought record amounts of imports in march, which are subtracted by the GDP. This put Trump in a small group of postwar presidents whose economies shrank within their first 100 days.
One reason for economic decline is “uncertainty,” which has become a common word as Trump has announced, repealed or modified various import taxes. Reports show that uncertainty about future trade policies has forced businesses and employers to delay expansion plans and hiring plans. This increases the risk that the U.S. will enter a recession within the next few months.
The U.S. consumer, already apprehensive about inflation, expects tariffs to increase prices even further and has become increasingly pessimistic regarding the economy. The drop in consumer confidence during Trump’s second tenure is a stark contrast from the trend that was seen under his immediate predecessors and even himself during his first mandate, when confidence rose.
Yet, economists still note a difference between “soft” (survey) data and “hard” (measurement results) data.
Despite their fears of a recession, consumers have continued to spend. Inflation measures have been subdued since March and unemployment has not risen significantly, which leads some economists predict that the economy will remain resilient through the tariff turmoil.
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