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March was the worst month for the S&P 500 since December 2022. The benchmark index experienced its first technical correction in 2023 at the beginning of the month. It finished the month down 5.8% as the Trump administration promised to continue with tariffs, which put Wall Street and Main Street both on edge.
While economic data have remained relatively positive this year, surveys show that tariffs may have hurt consumer, investor, and business confidence, which could lead to lower spending in the months to come.
Investors will likely continue to be concerned about tariffs in April. The White House plans to announce its reciprocal trade tariffs on April 2, also known as “Liberation Day” by President Trump. If the tariffs announced as expected are as steep and wide, they will likely have an effect on every corner of market.
Below, we examine two individual stocks and 3 groups of stocks that you should be watching this month.
Tesla
Tesla (TSLA), is expected to announce its first-quarter earnings at the end of this month. Investors will be eager for any good news from Elon Musk, CEO.
Tesla sales are down across the world due to consumer backlash over Musk’s work in the Trump administration and support for Europe’s far-right. Wall Street is also concerned that Musk’s work with the Department of Government Efficiency, which he already oversees as the head of half a dozen companies, will distract him from Tesla.
Tesla's stock has slumped nearly 40% since President Trump’s inauguration, putting shares about where they were before Trump’s re-election sent them soaring last November.
Musk announced on the company’s fourth-quarter call that the company will launch a paid Full Self-Driving service (FSD) in Austin, Texas this June, before rolling out the service nationally by the year 2026. Musk boasted that the roll-out autonomous vehicles will likely make this year “the biggest in Tesla history.”
Musk has a timeline for FSD that is aggressive and investors will be hoping he sticks to it.
Nvidia
The worst quarter for Nvidia stock (NVDA) since 2022 ended in March. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) fell 13% during the month. They are now almost 20% below the price they were at the beginning the year.
Investors, who questioned the economics of Nvidia’s valuation and dumped the stock, stopped the AI rally at the end of January.
Nvidia’s stock has struggled to regain its footing since then, despite the fact that the company exceeded earnings estimates and touted a strong AI demand during its annual GPU conference, which is one of the largest tech events of the entire year. The stock’s performance in the past quarter has shown that Magnificent Seven and Nvidia are not immune to a gloomy macro-environment.
Nvidia remains the poster child of the AI revolution, and its share price—less speculative than other AI plays but still dependent on robust growth—is likely to be one of the clearest reflections of the market's risk appetite this month.
Ford, General Motors, Stellantis
Late last month, Trump announced 25% tariffs for imported cars and parts. The tariffs on finished vehicles are scheduled to take effect on 3 April, while those on parts are expected to be implemented no later than 3 May.
Analysts at JPMorgan estimate that the total “tariff bill”, or cost to the auto industry, could reach $82 billion globally if carmakers don’t pass costs on to consumers. The tariffs announced by the Trump administration were better for U.S. carmakers than earlier ones, which targeted only imports from Canada and Mexico. Still, the Big Three—Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and Stellantis (STLA)—will take a significant hit if the tariffs go into effect as planned.
Investors will be watching closely to see if automakers can win some kind of reprieve from Trump’s aggressive tariff policies in April. Trump has already delayed and diluted his aggressive policy several times during his second tenure. Investors will wait for updates on the Big Three’s financial forecasts, manufacturing base and supply chain if some relief does not materialize.
Airline Stocks
Delta Airlines (DAL), America’s largest airline, is expected to release its first-quarter earnings on April 9. This will kick off the earnings season.
Delta lowered last month its outlook for the quarter, citing a “recent decrease in consumer and corporate trust caused by increased macro-uncertainty.” Ed Bastian, CEO of Delta, said at a JPMorgan Conference that the midair collision between a passenger plane and a military helicopter in January had raised concerns about flight security, which immediately weakened corporate and consumer demand. In addition, Washington headlines have raised concerns over a resurgent economy and inflation. This has weighed on discretionary spending.
International demand is also declining, despite a softening of domestic demand. Bookings of summer flights to the U.S. from Canada are down 70% compared to last year as Canadians are angry about Trump’s tariffs. Many long-time allies like the U.K., Germany and France have recently warned their citizens against traveling to the U.S. due to the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown.
Investors are looking for evidence that these trends will continue or even worsen.
Bank Stocks
Donald Trump’s second White House was expected to bring big banks a lot of benefits. Trump promised on the campaign trail to eliminate regulations that he considered bad for business. His presidency was expected to bring about a frenzy of dealmaking with regulators adopting a more lax approach to antitrust enforcement.
The dealmaking boom is still a long way off. Trump’s Federal Trade Commission has said that it will continue to pursue antitrust enforcement and merger review guidelines created under the Biden Administration. Trump has spent more time in the last two months pushing for tariffs, than deregulation. His focus has hammered stock markets, raised concerns over a slowing of the economy, and depressed the capital markets.
The industry is optimistic for the next four-year period following Trump’s recent appointment of Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who will serve as the Fed’s top bank regulator.
JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo are set to begin their bank earnings on 11 April. Investors will be watching for signs of waning confidence among consumers and businesses in bank earnings, guidance and executives’ opinions on the Trump administration.
