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Takeaways
- The number of ships carrying goods from China to the US has been "collapsing" in recent weeks, according to Apollo's chief economist, Torsten Sløk.
- He added that without any intervention, Americans might see empty shelves within weeks. The inflation would then creep.
- According to government data on imports, there may be shortages in stores of toys, clothing and furniture, as China is a major source of these products.
American shop shelves, aisles and racks could be empty in a few weeks as imports slow, according to Apollo Global Management's analysis of shipping data.
The number of ships leaving China for the US is “collapsing,” the asset management firm’s chief economist, Torsten Sløk, wrote Friday. If traffic remains low, Americans may soon be faced with shortages of common items sourced from China. That could drive prices higher, he said.
The rapid evolution of trade policies and their impact on toys, clothing and furniture could be dramatic. In 2024, the Department of Commerce reported that $41 billion worth of toys, games, sports equipment, and other merchandise was imported. China accounted more than 70% of all of it.
“The consequence will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages,” Sløk said. “We will also soon start to see higher inflation.”
The number of vessels with dry goods departing daily from China was close to 70 in mid-March, but has fallen to about 50, according to 15-day rolling averages compiled by Sløk. He said that their typical load has also decreased.
The drop in imports is a result of the US imposing a tariff of 145% on imports from China. According to the White House, under this tax and tariffs for specific commodities, China’s products could be subjected to tariffs up to 245%.
Government data shows that in the year 2000, more than one third of imported footwear, shoe parts and knitted or crocheted garments, by value were from China. Department of Commerce data shows that more than a third of the value of furniture and bedding, lamps, and other similar goods imported last was from China.
The administration of President Donald Trump has recently expressed a desire to reach a deal with China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the tariffs on goods that are traded between the two countries as “unsustainable.”
