Wall Street Is Souring on the S&P 500—Here’s Where Forecasters See Stocks Ending the Year

Key Takeaways

• More than half of Wall Street's major stock market forecasters have slashed their outlook for the S&P 500 in recent weeks amid turmoil sparked by President Trump's tariffs.
• Confusion and uncertainty about the economic outlook have caused the gap between the Street's highest and lowest year-end S&P 500 forecasts to widen significantly.
• The average estimate of firms that have updated their forecasts for the year-end suggests Wall Street now expects stocks to decline this year, rather than post a three-year streak of gains.

President Trump’s tariffs are not just roiling the stock market. They’ve also made predicting where stocks are heading nearly impossible.

Stock volatility reached new heights on Wednesday when President Trump, just hours after “reciprocal tariffs” went into effect, announced that most charges would be suspended for 90 days. The pause sparked the S&P 500’s biggest rally since 2008 days after the index suffered its worst rout since 2020. 

The unpredictable and unprecedented trade policies of the president have increased uncertainty among investors, business owners, and consumers. This has led to a sharp decline in economic confidence for each group. 

Wall Street analysts have responded to the tariffs by reducing their stock market projections. Four major firms—Bank of America, Evercore ISI, Oppenheimer, and JPMorgan Chase—cut their targets on Monday before tariffs were paused. Bank of America and Evercore both lowered their year-end S&P 500 forecasts to 5,600 from 6,666 and 6,800, respectively. Oppenheimer reduced its forecast by over 16%, to 5,950. JPMorgan became the most bearish of them all when it slashed its S&P 500 target to 5,200 from 6,500. 

Tariff uncertainty has not only weighed down on expectations, but also made forecasting difficult. It has also contributed to a growing gulf between Wall Street pessimists and optimists. At the start of 2025, the 14 firms tracked by CNBC’s Market Strategist Survey were projecting the S&P 500 would end the year anywhere between 6,500 and 7,100. By this week, there was a tripled difference between the low and the high forecasts. Excluding firms that haven't updated their year-end forecasts, the range has still expanded by 50% to 900 points. 

Analysts still expect the stock market to have a positive third consecutive year. The average forecast of 6,056 is about 3% above the S&P 500's level at the end of 2024 and about 13% above its close on Friday.

Updated forecasts tell another story. Excluding firms that have yet to change their forecasts in light of Trump's tariff and the recent sell-off, the average S&P 500 target is just 5,733, nearly 3% below where the index started the year and 7% above its current level.