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Think there will—or won't—be a recession this year? Wanna bet?
Economists have revised their forecasts after President Donald Trump announced new global tariffs late Wednesday. The announcement sent the markets tumbling. Several have scaled back their forecasts for U.S. gross domestic product, while lifting their predictions regarding the likelihood of a recession—technically defined as multiple quarters of declining GDP growth.
Investors have their own opinions. Bettors also bet on prediction markets. These have been gaining in popularity, including late last year as a way to wager on the result of the election Trump won. Other markets that you can play today include those about the New York Democratic Mayoral race, the Final Four and Elon Musk.)
On Polymarket, the odds of a recession have risen from below 30% around the time of Trump's inauguration to 56% as of earlier today. That means that, if you bet $1 on "yes," and you’re right, you'd win $1.75, while if you bet $1 on "no," you'd win $2.27.
Kalshi is another prediction market. The odds there are different. Over there, the odds of a recession were recently at 60%—meaning a correct $1 bet on "yes" will get you $2, while one on "no" will get you $3.
You can also read Investopedia’s live coverage here of today’s trading on other markets.
