Kyle Grillot via Bloomberg
Key Takeaways
- Forecasters say the U.S. is on track to create 140,000 jobs in march, down from 151,000 in Feb.
- President Donald Trump's campaign of tariffs has created uncertainty among employers, discouraging hiring and investment.
- A forecast in line will be below 167,000 average jobs created over the last twelve months.
If forecasters were correct about the way employers responded to possible economic upheavals then it is likely that the job market slowed but didn’t crash in March.
According to a Dow Jones Newswires/The Wall Street Journal poll of forecasters, a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday is likely to show that the U.S. has added 140,000 jobs since February, a decline from 151,000. The median forecast is for the unemployment to remain at 4.1%. This is the same as it has been in the past six month.
The report will provide some insight into the economy’s resilience to the pressures of President Donald Trump’s constantly changing tariff announcements. These announcements have roiled the financial markets and created uncertainty for business leaders regarding the U.S. trade policy in the future. Economists have warned the tariffs, which will likely drive up consumer prices, could stoke inflation and hurt the economy—and that the uncertainty will also drag on hiring and other business investments.
In recent years, high interest rates on loans, a result of Federal Reserve efforts to combat inflation have discouraged hiring and expansion for businesses, even though the job market has been relatively resilient.
Trump’s efforts at reducing the size of the federal government workforce has created a tumultuous atmosphere. Since his inauguration, Trump has laid off thousands of federal workers, but various court orders reversed many of the firings.
Forecasters say that despite recent consumer surveys showing households bracing themselves for a worsening employment market, unemployment claims are still relatively low. This indicates tariffs may not have yet led mass layoffs.
A job growth of 140,000 would represent a lower number than the 167,000 jobs created on average over the last twelve months. The economy hasn’t lost jobs since December 2020 when the COVID-19 epidemic was at its peak.
