What to Expect in the Markets this Week

Key Takeaways

• Friday will bring the March employment figures, while private sector payrolls and job vacancies are expected earlier in this week.
• Trade is also on the agenda, as new policy announcements are expected to be made Wednesday and other Tariffs will begin to take effect Thursday. Expect the latest update on U.S. Trade Deficit, along with factory order data, manufacturing and service sector surveys, and other data. 
• Corporate earnings scheduled this week include food sellers Conagra Brands and Lamb Weston, clothing retailers Guess and PVH Corp., and furniture store RH.

This week we will get the March employment figures, but investors may be paying more attention to other events in Washington.

Wednesday could see a slew new trade policies, while President Donald Trump’s tariffs will go into effect early on Thursday morning. The markets have been roiled as the president’s plans evolved in recent weeks. Investors will also be looking for an update on the U.S. Trade Deficit Thursday. They will also be monitoring factory orders data, manufacturing and services sector surveys updates throughout the week to see if there are any impacts from U.S. Tariff policies amid continued volatility in the market. 

Market watchers also will be following the corporate earnings calendar, which includes food sellers Conagra Brands (CAG)  and Lamb Weston (LW), clothing retailers Guess (GES) and Calvin Klein parent PVH Corp. (PVH), and furniture store RH (RH). 

Monday, March 31, 2019

• Chicago Business Barometer (March).
• Loar Holdings PVH Corp. Earnings are due to be reported

Tuesday, April 1.

• S&P manufacturing PMI (March)
• Construction spending (February).
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (March).
• Job Openings (February)
• Ncino (NCNO) Reporting earnings is scheduled

Wednesday, April 2

• ADP employment (March)
• Factory Orders (February)
• RHUniFirst (UNF),BlackBerry (BB) Earnings are due to be reported

Thursday, April 3, 2019

• Initial claims for unemployment (week ending March 29).
• U.S. trade deficit (February)
• S&P U.S. Services PMI (March)
• ISM Services (March) PMI
• Conagra BrandsAcuity (AYI).Lamb WestonGuess Earnings are due to be reported

Friday, April 4, 2019

• U.S. employment report (March)
• Jerome Powell, Fed chair, is scheduled to give a speech in Arlington Virginia

Spotlight: March Employment Numbers and U.S. Trade Policy and Data

This week, investors are focusing on the latest March employment data, expected trade news and manufacturing and services data as they continue to monitor the impact of U.S. Tariffs. 

Investors will be paying attention to the scheduled jobs report on Friday, as the Federal Reserve has cited the continued strength of the labor market when it decided to not lower interest rates during its March meeting.  The February job growth fell short of expectations and unemployment increased slightly to 4.1%. However, the last month showed that the labor market continued to grow despite the high interest rate headwinds. 

This week, market participants will also be looking at the ADP private-sector employment report scheduled for Wednesday and the weekly initial claims calendar item on Thursday.

Wednesday will be an important day for trade policy. President Trump is expected unveil his plan on reciprocal tariffs, and provide more detail on other policies. Some tariffs that were previously outlined are set to go into effect early on Thursday morning. Here you can keep track of all tariff proposals and their implementation.

The latest update on the U.S. Trade Deficit comes amid market tensions about Trump’s tariff policies that threaten to increase costs and invite retaliatory tax responses. Recent trade balance data revealed that the U.S. trade deficit with its trading partner was growing faster than expected import tax. 

The data on factory orders will be released on Wednesday, following last week’s report on durable goods orders. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), survey data due to be released later this week, will show if the struggling manufacturing sector is improving in light of Trump’s proposed tariffs. 

Clothing, Food, Furniture Sellers' Earnings Reports Come as Investors Watch Consumer Health

Investors will gain some insight on the public’s appetite to spend and the impact of possible U.S. Tariffs by reviewing scheduled earnings reports for retail and food companies. 

Investors will be looking for consumer spending trends in the scheduled reports on Monday from clothing maker PVH Corp., whose brands include Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, and from Guess on Thursday. 

The fourth-quarter report comes as retailers have had another strong holiday in 2024, but have begun to temper their expectations for 2025 amid tariff threat and a softening of consumer spending. PVH has to contend with potential trade restrictions from China. 

Conagra Brands, a frozen dinner maker, and Lamb Weston, a potato seller both report their sales on Thursday. 

Conagra warned investors recently that sales could be affected by the difficulty in sourcing enough chicken or frozen produce. 

Lamb Weston’s quarterly report comes at a time when activist investor Jana Partners is seeking changes in the company. The company had previously reported unexpected losses, a lower outlook, and a new leadership.

Furniture retailer RH – formerly Restoration Hardware – is set to report its results on Wednesday. It has boosted its full year outlook and turned a profit during the last quarter, despite the weak housing market.